West Tennessee Weather Online

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
535 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

…WEST TENNESSEE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…

.WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR WEST TENNESSEE.  THE GREATEST RISK IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THE TIME OF THE GREATEST RISK IS AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.AREAS AFFECTED

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE.

.DISCUSSION

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SW U.S. COUPLED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BECOME SEVERE LATER TONIGHT.

AN ADDITIONAL THREAT TONIGHT IS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.  SOME LOCALES COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

NWS/WTWO

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
600 PM CST TUE MAR 9 2010

…WEST TENNESSEE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…

…TONIGHT…
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 6 PM ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH…HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES…AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

…WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT…

.WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED AND TIMING

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. THE TIME OF THE GREATEST RISK IS BETWEEN 4 PM WEDNESDAY AND 4 AM THURSDAY.

.AREAS AFFECTED

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF A LINE FROM DYERSBURG TO SOMERVILLE.

.DISCUSSION

AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE REGION COUPLED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  OUTSIDE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA…STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4 PM WEDNESDAY AND 4 AM THURSDAY

NWS/WTWO

WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER SUMMARY
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
510 AM CST TUE MAR 9 2010

.Morning Synopsis…
Over the last several days, West TN has enjoyed a delightful taste of spring.  An upper ridge of high pressure has
been with us through the weekend and is now moving to our east and we are coming under the influence of an
upper level low pressure entered the SW US Sunday and is rolling through the Plains this morning.  GRLevel3
Doppler Radar at 458 AM CST was showing the leading edge of an area of showers extending from neat Martin
to Milan to Henderson to Selmer. The latest lightning data shows thunderstorms operating further south in West
Central MS.  The back edge of this particular area of showers was almost to Jonesboro and West Memphis, AR.
However, a band of thunderstorms entering Central AR at the time of this writing. All of the activity was
associated with the approaching upper low over the Plains.  At the surface, low pressure was over KS with a cold
fron south into Central TX.  A weak boundary was located from W. KY into NW MO.

.Today through Wednesday…
Through this period, W. TN will be on the east side of an upper level cyclone spinning over the Plains.  Pockets
of energy will be rotating around the system keeping rain chances in our forecast.  This morning’s rain is
expected to taper off by afternoon with low cloudiness continuing.  Through Wednesday, look for low chances
of rain.  Hard to pinpoint when to expect the rain chances as it will be dependent upon upper level disturbances
rotating nearby.  Highs this afternoon may step out of the 50s into the lower 60s.  Wednesday highs will reach
for 70.

.Thursday…
The upper low and surface features will be on the move headed toward the east coast.  Thursday could have a
potential for severe weather as surface low pressure moves into the Midwest and drags a cold front through our
area Thursday night.  The Storm Prediction Center has placed extreme W. TN in a slight risk for severe weather.
It is questionable whether the severe weather threat will extend this far east considering the timing of its arrival.
The instability may not be adequate.  This will have to be monitored.  Highs will be in the lower 70s.

.Friday through Monday…
We’ll transition back to cooler weather.  Low clouds and low rain chances will take us into the weekend.
Improving weather is seen for Monday.    Highs will mainly be in the 50s.

EH

(Monday, March 8, 2010) – Most areas should see over an inch of rain this week and according to the graphic from the NWS below, some areas in West TN could use it.  The graphic, which depicts the percent of the average precipitation received so far this year, shows that many areas north of Interstate 40 have received only 50-75% of their average rainfall.  Several counties have areas that have not had even 50% of the precipitation they typically would have received by March 8th.

SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
WEST TENNESSEE WEATHER ONLINE JACKSON TN
725 PM CDT FRIDAY MARCH 5 2010

…THE FOLLOWING ARE EXCERPTS FROM THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
ISSUED BY THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER SLIDELL, LA ON FRIDAY,
MARCH 5, 2010…

INTRODUCTION…

OVER THE PAST THREE MONTHS, TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY RUN BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE LMRFC FORECAST AREA WHILE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI,
ARKANSAS, AND WEST NORTH CAROLINA. THE REMAINDER OF THE LMRFC HAS
RECEIVED NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL. COLD TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF EXCESSIVE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE FALL AND WINTER HAS RESULTED IN LONG TERM
SOIL MOISTURE CONTENTS BEING ABOVE NORMAL OVER MOST OF THE LMRFC AREA,
EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN ALABAMA.
ALTHOUGH LITTLE SNOW PACK REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE LMRFC, SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS PRODUCED
SNOW DEPTH OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 20 TO 40 INCHES. OVER THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS, MOST OF THE LMRFC AREA WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH ONLY A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH
CAROLINA, TENNESSEE, AND VIRGINIA, AS WELL AS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS.

UPSTREAM OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SNOWDEPTH RANGED FROM
6 TO 30 INCHES OVER IOWA AND MINNESOTA WHILE NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI HAD A SNOWDEPTH OF LESS THAN 6 INCHES. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ACROSS MINNESOTA ASND NORTHWEST IOWA RANGED FROM 2 TO 7
INCHES WHILE 1 TO 3 INCHES SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS REMAINED OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS, NORTHERN MISSOURI AND THE REMAINDER OF IOWA. SNOW DEPTH OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY RANGED FROM 2 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS OHIO, WEST VIRGINIA
AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WITH LESS THAN 2 INCHES OVER NORTH INDIANA AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS OHIO, WEST VIRGINIA AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WHILE LESS THAN
1 INCH OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT REMAINED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

SOIL MOISTURE CONTENTS WERE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. SOIL MOISTURE CONTENTS
WERE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOTH WISCONSIN
AND MINNESOTA.

OBION, FORKED DEER, HATCHIE, AND WOLF BASINS OF WEST
TENNESSEE (WFO MEG)…..

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS ARE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEST
TENNESSEE DRAINAGE. OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS ARE BELOW TO MUCH BELOW
NORMAL. NO FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
OBSERVED PERCENT OF NORMAL STREAMFLOWS ARE GIVEN BELOW.

RIVER                               GAUGE     2/18     3/4
HATCHIE RIVER          BOLIVAR TN    153%    50%
WOLF RIVER          GERMANTOWN TN     95%    69%
OBION RIVER              OBION TN     62%    72%
NORTH FORK OBION        MARTIN TN    112%    57%

BASED ON EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, OBSERVED STREAMFLOWS
AND NORMAL SPRING RAINFALL PATTERNS, AN ABOVE AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL
IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN TENNESSEE BASINS.

30-DAY AND 90-DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK…..

THE 30-DAY METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE LMRFC AREA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
INDICATED FOR THE GULF COAST STATES, WHILE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE LMRFC AREA.

THE 90-DAY METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK INDICATES BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE LMRFC AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS INDICATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE LMRFC AREA.

FOR THE FULL TEXT OF THIS PRODUCT CLICK HERE OR GO TO THIS ADDRESS:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MEG/ESFMEG

NWS/WTWO

MONTHLY CLIMATE SUMMARY
West Tennessee Weather Online Jackson TN
1000 AM CST Mon Mar 01 2010

…February 2010:  Dry, Cold and Snowy…

…TEMPERATURE DATA…

The average temperature for the month of February 2010 was 34.4 degrees.
This was 8.2 deg below average.  It ranks as the third coldest February on
record in Jackson.  The average high was 43.6 deg. The average low was 25.2 deg.
The highest temperature recorded was 67 deg on the 21st.  The lowest
temperature was 12 on the 1st.

…PRECIPITATION DATA…

Total precipitation for February was 2.68 inches.  This was 1.57 inches below average.
The greatest 24-hour total was 0.89 inch recorded on the 8th.  Frozen precipitation
totalled 5.7 inches.  This was 3.7 inches above normal.  The greatest 24-hour amount
was 3.0 inches on the 8th.

…MISC. DATA…

The highest wind gust was 30 mph on the 14th.  Winter 2010 was the 5th coldest
and 7th snowiest.  The average temperature was 36.0 deg.  Total snowfall for
the winter season was 12.0 inches.

…DATA FROM OTHER CLIMATE STATIONS IN JACKSON/MADISON COUNTY…

NORTH JACKSON

Ave. Temperature: 34.1º
Ave. Maximum: 43.8º
Ave. Minimum: 24.4º
Highest Temperature: 67º on 21st.
Lowest Temperature: 15º on 1st.

Total Precipitation: 2.56″
Greatest 24-Hr. Amount: 0.89″ on the 8th.
Total Snowfall:  3.4 inches
Greatest 24-Hr. Amount: 2.5″ on 8th.

Holmes